Christie favorables among Republicans is outstanding
By Wally Edge
Outgoing U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie has a 42%-1% favorable rating among Republican voters, who by a 67%-4% margin want him to run for Governor in 2009. In a head to head poll with Democrat Jon Corzine, Republicans back Christie 76%-10%. Christie also leads Corzine among Independents, 38%-32%.
The data comes from a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
There is a silver lining for Steve Lonegan and other potential GOP gubernatorial candidates: a December 6, 2000 Quinnipiac poll had U.S. Rep. Bob Franks with a 51%-3% favorable rating and trailing Democrat James E. McGreevey by three points (38%-35%) in the 2001 gubernatorial camapaign. Franks lost the '01 GOP primary to Bret Schundler by a 57%-43% margin.
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Leads among Independents...
Corzine has spent $100 million buying various offices. Christie, not a cent. Corzine is the Governor who makes and is news every day. Christie gets attention when an indictment is handed down and when a conviction is made. The fact that Christie is as strong as he is right now without all of the advantages that COrzine has/had is amazingly positive. Campaign 2009 will be a referndum on Corzine (they always are) and Christie couldn't be better positioned. Shaftan's negative and divisive campaign will so backfire against a guy who has 47-1 fav/unfav and 2/3 of the GOP voters wanting him to fun. A 6 point lead among Independents! Corzine is and will be stuck at 43-47%...he is not re-electable.
GOPanimal, unfortunately...
Unfortunately for Christie he has no credibility or experience on the issue that is most important to Republican (and independent voters). Lonegan has cornered that market and for that reason he is better positioned than Christie.
If Christie runs and corruption becomes the primary focus of the campaign Republicans will see another defeat DESPITE Corzine's rating and people's desire for him to be replaced. (He will suffer the same fate in a general as Forrester and Kean when they tried to make that issue the focal point of their campaigns).
Also, you mention Corzine will be stuck at his current favoarble rating .... but unfortunately for Christie, Corzine still leads Christie by 6 points even with those unfavorables.
I was there first hand when Bob Franks collapsed in 2001.
When Bob Franks ran for U.S. Senate against Corzine in 2000, I was one of his volunteer county co-ordinators. Bob Franks ran a brilliant campaign, and lost to Corzine by a handful of votes which were probably fraudulant. All of us volunteers urged Bob Franks to run for Governor on election night, and at his farewell party a few weeks later. Had Bob Franks done so at that point, nothing could have stopped him. But Franks deferred to Senate Presidint DeFrancesco, and only ran for Governor when DeFrancesco proved he could not defeat Schundler. But then, it was too late for Bob Franks to file his nominating petition, so the Republicans in the Legislature changed the election rules. This branded Franks as a Trenton-insider-party-hack and finished him. I think Chris Christie is in that same category, would get clobbered just like similar inside party hacks DeFrancesco-Forrester-Zimmer. But I don't think Steve Lonegan will let him get that far.