If GOP can't beat Adler in '10, he'll get a safe seat until he runs statewide
By Wally Edge
If Republicans can't beat John Adler in 2010, chances are they never will. If Adler wins a second term, watch for mapmakers to take take some heavily Republican Ocean County towns out of his district when new congressional districts are drawn for the 2012 elections. Adler scored a 52%-48% victory last week over Republican Christopher Myers for the seat of retiring twelve term U.S. Rep. Jim Saxton -- a seat Democrats hadn't won since 1882.
Republican insiders say that Myers isn't likely to get a second shot at the seat, and that the favorite candidate could be former major league baseball pitcher Al Leiter. Leiter, a Toms River native who has said he wants to run for office someday, has turned down several offers to seek U.S. Senate and House seats in recent years. Other possible Adler opponents include: State Sen. Diane Allen (who must first heal wounds in a very fractured Burlington County Republican organization); State Sen. Phil Haines; Assemblywoman Dawn Addiego; Assemblyman Brian Rumpf; and Ocean County Freeholder Jack Kelly, who lost the '08 GOP primary to Myers.
As for the 49-year-old Adler, don't expect him to spend the rest of his life in the House. South Jersey Democrats expect that he'll look to run statewide in a few years, possibly for Governor in 2013 or U.S. Senator in 2014. Adler has now replaced Rob Andrews as South Jersey's best shot at winning a statewide election.
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Syndicate
All districts will move south
The population in NJ has grown in the south, so all the Congressional districts will edge farther south in 2012. Population growth in Galloway in Hamilton Townships (Atlantic County) means that Frank Lobiondo's district will have to lose towns on its western or northern edges (it can't lose towns to the south or east, of course). Lobiondo will have to lose some towns in Salem County and Gloucester County, which means Rob Andrews' district picks them up, or Lobiondo's district has to lose Shamong, Washington Twp (Burlco) and either Galloway, Hammonton, or Hamilton, (atlantic Co) which would go to Adler's district. In any scenario, Tom's River is going into Chris Smith's district, no matter who wins the 2010 election in Adler's district.
Does not make sense
Sorry but that does not make much sense. The State is likely to lose a seat. The migration of people have not necessarily moved south but have moved out. According to the statistics at the State DOL, the population in Central NJ had the largest gain. In other words, they are going to have to combine two districts together as a result of losing a seat. If the two seats are in Central or North Jersey, the districts south will have to be pushed up - Adler picking up more of Burlington and some of Ocean. Andrews will have to go east and north possibly going into Burlington. LoBiondo would have to move north into Burlington and possibly into Ocean. All depends on if we lose the seat.
Addiego?? YEAH RIGHT!
She will be lucky to hold on to her assembly seat.
Allen does not have to heal anything. If Paulsen/Layton are not on the way out the door then kiss Burl Co GOP good bye!
Allen or Bill Haines need to step up and lead the party out of the Paulsen/Layton corruption era.
Hard to Draw
If you look at Jersey South of 195 you have Camden County as the firmest Democratic bastion. Then Gloucester and Cumberland about equally as Democrat to each other but Cumberland is small and votes for Frank LoBiondo. Then Atlantic is a tossup, as is Burlington, with Ocean as the GOP behemoth.
Chris Smith remains popular and unbeatable in Hamilton Twp, northern Burlington, and Ocean. While Adler might be able to win Trenton and northern Burlington if thrown in with Smith, I think Hamilton and presumably more of Ocean would help Smith.
Simply put, I think in a 12-seat musical chairs it would be hard to have the state delegation be 8-4 Democrat. That is because GOP incumbents Smith and LoBiondo have bi-partisan appeal that transcends slight Democratic advantages in their areas. That is why Jeff Van Drew may see running against LoBiondo as a fools errand.
Adler's best hope for a safe seat is for Holt or Andrews to retire and absorb most of their district in the process.
Adler for U.S. Senate in 2014
Assuming Adler holds off a Republican challenge in 2010, I see him moving up to run state-wide no later than 2014 (when Lautenberg's seat is up).