Patrick Murray

Democrats think today's Quinnipiac gubernatorial poll indicates that Gov. Jon Corzine is well on his way to being understood and embraced by the electorate after making several unpopular and tough, but necessary decisions.

Republicans see the poll as demonstrating lackluster support for the Corzine, considering he's spent a combined $100 million on his two previous statewide races, and early enthusiasm for U.S. Attorney Chris Christie's potential candidacy among those who have heard of him.

Meanwhile, non-partisan political analysts see the poll as a wash, with promising and troubling results for both Corzine and U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie, who is viewed as a likely gubernatorial candidate.

Corzine leads Christie in the poll, 42% to 36%, although only 37% of voters think Corzine deserves to be reelected and his approval rating remains net negative. Christie remains a relative unknown, with only 30% of respondents knowing enough about him to form an opinion.

Assemblyman Joseph Cryan (D-Union), the Democratic State Chairman, said that's the number that caught his attention. Despite dozens of positive front page headlines about his indictments and convictions of prominent public officials since he was sworn in, 70% of voters still barely know anything about him.

On top of that, although Corzine still has a net negative approval rating, he's improved significantly since the last Quinnipiac poll in September.

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Rob Andrews will return for his eleventh term in Congress next year, and after losing two statewide races, it's unclear whether the last will be the final one.

Andrews ran a close second in the 1997 Democratic gubernatorial primary against James E. McGreevey, was passed over to succeed Gov. Corzine in the Senate, and mounted a primary challenge against incumbent U.S. Sen. Frank Lautenberg this year, only to lose by 25 percentage points. But despite those three dispiriting defeats, he still won't rule out the possibility of another statewide run some day, and prefers not to speculate on whether the last one hurt his prospects.

"That's really not for me to decide. That's for voters to decide and leaders of the party," said Andrews (D-Haddon Heights) in a phone interview yesterday.

Political insiders acknowledge that there are a thousand lives in politics, but see Andrews's defeat as being particularly hard to crawl back from - and not just because of the lopsided margin.

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With state agencies ready to cut back and homeowners potentially not getting rebate checks next year, Bergen County Clerk Kathe Donovan thinks it’s about time the state forces its two professional football teams to make some sacrifices.

But does she also think it’s about time to kick off a statewide campaign?

Donovan sent a letter to Gov. Jon Corzine asking him to consider forcing the New York Giants and Jets, who both play in Bergen County and receive millions in economic incentives from the state, to share part of their $800 million in windfall profits from the sale of Personal Seat Licenses.

“’Everything on the table’ means that Trenton’s commitment to return homestead rebates to hard pressed property tax payers may be broken. Aid for schools in suburban, rural and urban districts may be cut and state colleges will be forced to raise tuition costs to make up for reduced state aid,” wrote Donovan. “Hospitals here in Bergen County and elsewhere that rely on Medicaid and Charity Care payments will almost certainly see a significant reduction in state aid which could force a cutback in services. And this comes at a time when workers are being forced to switch from high paying to lower paying jobs without health care benefits which will add significantly to the Charity Care burden borne by hospitals at a time when Charity Care payments could be reduced.”

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It's election eve, which means that it's time to journey up the Ivory Tower to hear what political analysts think will happen tomorrow.

The four analysts PolitickerNJ.com talked to today were unanimous in predicting a big win for Barack Obama over John McCain both nationally and in New Jersey, and were nearly certain that incumbent U.S. Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D-Cliffside Park) would easily beat down the challenge by former Rep. Dick Zimmer.   

They were also unanimous in picking state Sen. John Adler (D-Cherry Hill) over Republican Medford Mayor Chris Myers in the 3rd Congressional District.

Three out of four predicated that U.S. Rep. Scott Garrett (R-Wantage) would beat challenger Dennis Shulman in the 5th District, but by a narrow margin.  

Three out of four also felt that Assemblywoman Linda Stender (D-Fanwood) had the edge in her race against state Sen. Leonard Lance (R-Flemington) in the 7th Congressional District, while one gave Lance a narrow victory. Read More >

Democrats Barack Obama and Frank Lautenberg have huge leads going into Election Day, according to a new Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll released early this morning.  Obama leads Republican John McCain in New Jersey by 21 points, 55%-34%, amog likely voters.  In the race for U.S. Senate, incumbent Frank Lautenberg leads Republican Dick Zimmer, a former Congressman, by 19 points, 50%-31%.  

Offering a possible explanation for the increase in no opinion about the two candidates, Patrick Murray, the dirdctor of the Monmouth University Polling Institute said, “It may be that some voters simply realized that the election is next week and they still haven’t heard much, if anything, from their senate candidates.  Even with that, Lautenberg has a commanding lead.  To borrow from an old saying about Frank Sinatra, it’s Obama’s world this year and Frank Lautenberg is lucky to live in it.”

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On this final weekend before the election, NJN’s On the Record will feature a discussion of the U.S. Senate debate with Republican political analyst Roger Bodman, former Governor Jim Florio, Montclair State Political Science Professor Brigid Harrison and Monmouth University professor/pollster Patrick Murray.

That show, hosted by Michael Aron, will air Sunday at 9 and 11a.m., and again on Monday at 6:30a.m

On Reporter’s Roundtable, Aron will host Jonathan Tamari of the Philadelphia Inquirer, Charles Stile of the Bergen Record, Kevin McArdle of Millennium Radio and Matt Friedman of PolitickerNJ.com.  The reporters will discuss the U.S. Senate and Congressional races.  It airs today at 7p.m. and Sunday at 10a.m.

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A new Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll shows incumbent Frank Lautenberg with a 16 point lead over Dick Zimmer in the race for U.S. Senate -- 52%-36% among likely voters.  A Quinnipiac University poll released this week has Lautenberg ahead by 22 points.  Zimmer, a former Republican Congressman, remains unknown to 56% of voters.

“With just two weeks to go, the incumbent’s stealth campaign appears to be succeeding. Of course, it certainly helps that his challenger has yet to introduce himself to most of the state’s voters,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.  “Given the lack of visible campaign activity, Lautenberg seems to be coasting along on Obama’s coattails.”

Lautenberg has a 48%-28% job approval rating, up from 45%-33% in July.  He has a 45%-24% favorable rating.  Zimmer has a 28%-16% favorable rating.  

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Nearly four out of ten New Jersey voters don't know about Gov. Jon Corzine's economic stimulus package, according to a new Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll.  Voters narrowly approve, 44%-37%, a financial rescue plan approved by Congress and signed by the President earlier this month.

Of the voters who have heard about Corzine's proposals, 38% say it would make things better for New Jersey families, while 22% think it would make things worse.  More than a quarter of the voters (27%) say it will make no difference.

“The federal government’s plan hasn’t quelled uncertainty among most New Jersey voters and it’s not yet clear whether Governor Corzine’s proposal for state action will do much better,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.

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Barack Obama is likely to win New Jersey's 15 electoral votes, according to a Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll: Getty Images Photo
Barack Obama has a 17-point lead over John McCain in New Jersey, 55%-38% among likely voters, according to a new Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey Poll released this morning.  Obama had an 8-point lead in the same poll last month.

“We have reached the tipping point in this race, with nearly half of the state’s voters saying they are very sure they will vote for Obama,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, who few Obama voters daid hey were willing to change their minds before Election Day. “At this point, it would take an October surprise of astronomical proportions to turn New Jersey from blue to red.”

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Gov. Jon Corzine, struggling to win the approval of N.J. voters, announced his economic stimulus plan today
Political pundits tend to agree that the surge in Democrats on the voter rolls will help New Jersey Democrats this election cycle, from those running for federal office down to freeholder.

But as Gov. Corzine pitches his economic proposals for dealing with the financial crisis today -- which many see as the second early salvo of his reelection campaign – the pundits are less clear on whether the state’s bolstered Democratic majority will provide a big boost to him next year.

Right now, the new registration numbers look good for Democrats.  Statewide, as of the latest report from the Division of Elections dated October 13th there just under 600,000 more Democrats than there were in November, 2007.  Republicans had a much more modest gain, with 176,000 new party members.

Many of those new registrants are merely voters who leaned Democratic anyway but never bothered to vote in a primary before this year.  The number of unaffiliated voters, for instance, dropped by 322,000.

But there have also been 449,000 new registrants since November, and all indications are that the newly enfranchised are trending blue.

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